Recent reading: Lady Susan

In her teens, Jane Austen wrote an epistolary novella. It was published decades after her death as Lady Susan. It's flawed, but entertaining. Lady Susan is a manipulative yet observantly witty, and is a dominating character--no one else in the narrative is of much interest.

It involves money and marriage, no surprise, and is no one's idea of a romance. Lady Susan tries to marry her daughter off to a wealthy but otherwise inappropriate suitor, but her plans are thrown off by her own urge to misbehave with yet another man. A good manipulator is never manipulated by her own emotions, so Lady Susan falls short of the ideal.

Whit Stillman recently turned the book into the movie Love and Friendship (named after quite a different unfinished Austen work, even though there is little enough of either in the book, or the movie). It's a chilly and austere enterprise, probably not worth seeing if you haven't read the book.

It is interesting to read, because it's always interesting to see a writer working with favorite themes but with incomplete control of technique. Since the novel is written in letters, the letters must be written to someone. So Lady Susan confides all her machinations to her friend Alicia Johnson. Alicia has no role in the narrative, save as uncritical cheerleader to Lady Susan, and is give a perfunctory background life with an unsatisfactory husband. She's a bit like a pillar in the middle of the living room put in to support to roof by an architect who hadn't figured out a way to work it into the design.

In the movie, Lady Susan (Kate Beckinsale) keeps popping into London from the country house she is staying in to visit Alicia (Chloe Sevigny, played as American, presumably to expand the film's market) whenever she needs to talk to her, as if there's a commuter train between the two. If Alicia had been an actual part of the narrative, that would have been easier for Stillman to manage.

One thing I really like about Lady Susan is that she is a bad mom. And this is just a fact about her, not much more terrible than her other personality traits. In most fiction, being a bad mom is the worst thing a woman can be. Bad dad...well, hey, that's a hard job, no wonder us guys screw it up now and then. Lady Susan describes her daughter as a bit of a dullard. Mean, but entirely accurate, in both book and movie. She is phenomenally dull. Her only use really is to get married off so that mom can continue to live an overleveraged life.

The story feels truncated, as if Austen went on to other, more promising projects (Sense and Sensibility, originally Elinor and Marianne was apparently also epistolary in its original draft) and never got back to it. Kind of a pity. If Alicia Johnson, earnest confidante, had turned into an actor in her own right, with goals that gradually diverge from Lady Susan's, it might have been quite something. Call it Will and Idea, and scoop Schopenhauer into the bargain....

I read this for my favorite book group, where I always find myself reading something unexpected.

 

Did you ever notice...?

At the risk of chanToo European for you?nelling the late Andy Rooney: did you ever notice that the small, double basket carts at the grocery store are always gone?

People don't actually fight over the things, at least not here in Cambridge, where people are really well behaved, but sometimes it seems like they should. While there are dozens of the big, traditional shopping carts, large enough to hold an entire side of beef, case of PBR, and a gross of Lean Cuisines, all of which require diving into the depths of the cart to retrieve, the nimble, post-divorce carts are in scarce supply.

Beware, you suburbanites. A Cambridge grocery store will terrify you. The aisles are just wide enough for naked mole rats to squirm over each other. You'll get claustrophobia, and the package sizes will make you feel that you've woken up in Lilliput.

Maybe thisAnything to keep them from scooping food from the shelves sport-model carts have no place in the rest of the country (though there must be plenty of divorced and single people everywhere), but here they are a wonderful invention. I see parents maneuvering those giant carts with the driving simulator on the back (two steering wheels--fortunately, self-driving cars will probably be mandatory before these deluded toddlers get old enough to apply for a license), but then, these people drive Escalades and probably have sectional sofas the size of aircraft carriers at home. For the rest of us, the sport model cart is just what we want.

Particularly for me, since I put my bike panniers in the bottom basket and fill the top.

So why do these grocery stores run out of them so much? There are any number of possible reasons:

  • They are expensive, despite their small size
  • They are easily stolen, damaged, or otherwise require frequent replacement
  • The manufacturers are having trouble filling orders
  • They require their own line, which reduces the available inventory of the tradtional carts prohibitively

You can come up with your own reasons. If I was an actual journalist, I'd do some research and learn what the supply and use contstraints really are, but really I just want to complain. If anyone does figure out an explanation, let me know.

Addendum, 2/1/17: I asked a clerk at the store, and he said that those smaller carts are stolen way more frequently than the big ones. They only have half of their initial purchase of 36 small carts left, and really have to think if it's worth the cost. At least everyone seems to like them!

 

Where I'll be at Arisia

I'll be attending our local con, Arisia, next weekend (January 13-15). I probably won't be there Friday night, but will be all day Saturday and Sunday.  If  you're there, say hello. My panels are:

10 am Saturday Fashionpunk
A discussion of various aspects of fashion and SF, with Chris Brathwaite, T. X. Watson, and Nightwing Whitehead.

10 am Sunday How to Self-Edit That Steaming Hot Pile of Crap
Thrilling editing stories and methods, with Trisha Wooldridge, Matthew Kressel, Jackqui B., and Ken Scheneyer.

1 pm Sunday The 100 Year Old Barbed Wire: The Great War & SF
A combination of works by people who went through that war, and works about and influence by it, with Sioban Krzywicki, Greer Gilman, Debra Doyle, and Sonya Taaffe.

'Twas ever thus

Sometimes the world seems totally different, when it is actually completely the same.

I was reading Sean Davis Cashman's America in the Gilded Age (research for a possible book), when I came across an account of a conflict the urban reformer and founder of Chicago's Hull House, Jane Addams, had with a corrupt local boss, Johnny "DePow" Powers.  She wanted to clean the streets of trash, and so launched two campaigns, in 1896 and 1898, to unseat him. She failed both times. As Cashman puts it:

She discovered she could not compete with his reputation for generosity. He boasted that 2,600 ward residents owed their city jobs to him. He distributed railroad passes, Christmas dinners, and free coal. Ordinary people could appreciate such minuscule largess without realizing that they usually paid for it in the extortionate street railway fares Powers secured for his allies, the railway companies. Ironically, they prefered his top hat and opulent life-style to the cloth caps and austere behavior of Addams's candidates.

That "irony", if such it is, will always be with us. The popular politician who lives large and crushes more virtuous opponents is a staple of democratic politics, from Alcibiades's day to this.

Our political Morton Thiokol O-ring

On January 28, 1986 the space shuttle Challenger took off from Kennedy Space Center, in unusually cold temperatures. Morton Thiokol had built the boosters out of four segments each. Field joints containing rubber O-rings seals connected the segments. That morning, the cold rubber of the joints, operating in temperatures far lower than ever tested, became stiff.

A jet of exhaust came through one of the cold-stiff seals and played on an external tank containing oxygen and hydrogen, until the tank exploded. At 73 seconds after liftoff, Challenger came apart. I'd like to say "killing all aboard", but it seems that the crew survived, as the crew compartment continued to climb before free falling into the ocean, finally killing everyone aboard.

This was the result of "normal deviance": things seemed fine on every other day, so poor practices continued, shrinking safety margins. Because safety margins are a pain in the ass.

Increasing bank capital requirements can lower the risk of catastrophic 2008-type failures and bailouts, as Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed has proposed, but at the cost of higher interest rates and lower growth (the most recent episode of the Planet Money podcast has that story). Repairing infrastructure before it actually falls down costs money taxpayers always bitch about. Computer security slows things down, and makes interactions more difficult. Security precautions are always annoying, and no one can tell which ones are effective. Earthquake-proofing buildings in tectonically active areas is expensive, time-consuming, and can affect how buildings look.

If nothing bad happens for awhile (and that "awhile" doesn't have to be very long) people start cutting corners. They get irritated at inspectors, security drills, perfectly good money spent for no visibly good reason. They get to think that you should only worry about problems that happen visibly and regularly. Even trained engineers and technicians, like those that day at KSC can fall prey to it. It's not obvious. And, until something goes really wrong, the problem is invisible, because failure is sudden and dramatic, rather than slow and visible.

Our economic and political system seems robust, flexible, and responsive. And I'm sure it is. Still, both democracy and capitalism are essentially unnatural. Both insist on valuing strangers as much as personal contacts, tell you that costs in the short term lead to benefits in the long term, and are complex and opaque. Maintenance and upgrades have to be continuous, and that work can be quite tiresome and unrewarding.

We have elected a Morton Thiokol O-ring as President.  Assume nothing, and keep your eye on the thermometer.

 

 

A few podcasts I like

One of the most influential cultural figures in my (part of) my world is Mike Duncan. Duncan pioneered a deeply researched, perceptive, snarky style for presenting longform history podcasts in the History of Rome, and then in Revolutions.

The first history podcaster with a high profile was probably Lars Brownsworth with his Twelve Byzantine Rulers, many years ago, but I think it took Duncan to really show how a regular person, working hard, could do it.

Robin Pierson, with his imposing The History of Byzantium is the most obvious successor, since he took up where Duncan left off, with the intention of going all the way to 1453.

But lately I've really liked The History of the Twentieth Century by Mark Painter, who, from his biography, also writes science fiction. No wonder it's good. He picks interesting music of the period (he had a particularly funny run of playing "A Hot Time On The Old Town", which seems to have been the sound track to America's introduction to overseas military intervention. He really seems able to pull out the interesting and significant points from any incident, character, or situation. I'm a big fan.

Many podcasts are self-indulgent, unedited, and focused on whatever happened in the last five minutes. I like a couple of those (like the Slate Political Gabfest and Slate Money). But, by and large, it takes a lot of work and editing to get a podcast worth listening to.

I'd love to do a podcast myself, but have trouble getting done what I need to already. I have a concept, topics, and everything. Someday, maybe....

The saving remnant

Before the election I worried that Clinton's victory would enable the Left to continue to ignore the consequences of its intellectual bankruptcy, failure to engage with the real problems facing our civilization, and insular self-satisfaction.

Well, Clinton didn't win, but that didn't make any difference to my prediction. The Left really does seem intent on ignoring these things, focusing, instead, on our new President's (many and real) personal failings, a total nonstarter as either a political move or a coherent philosophical position.

I continue to find the fate of Washington's Initiative 732, where social justice activists helped defeat a sensible-seeming carbon tax proposal because it didn't provide enough direct payoffs to their constituencies, instructive. Sometimes, the real question we ask about a big problem should be "how can we solve it?" and not "how can we use it to bludgeon our cultural enemies?" Self-righteousness always seems to triumph over incremental problem solving.

I'm worried that, seemingly envying Putin's Russia its vibrant cultural life, booming economy, and inclusive politics, the Trump administration will settle us with a crony capitalist system that looks superficially like the wealth-and-freedom-creating system we are used to, but is actually something quite different.

Instead I see essays on cultural appropriation, an issue that shows how far past its sell-by date American progressivism has gotten. But I certainly can't do any better on that topic than Fredrik deBoer's no one has the slightest idea what is and isn’t cultural appropriation, and deBoer is far leftier than I.

Fortunately, I am reading a lot of really sensible people, from the usual Marginal Revolution to a couple of recent discoveries that seem to be in my weird little political segment, Bleeding Heart Libertarians and The Niskanen Center.

Real thought is out there. We need to cling together, while keeping in mind how easily the sensible middle gets ground between the upper and nether millstones of two ferociously competitive teams. Being sensible has not usually been a particularly successful political movement.

 

My anti-akrasia tools III: credible commitment to long-term goals

Worthwhile long-term goals, whether losing weight, learning a foreign language, or becoming the kind of person who writes blog posts consistently, are the product of small, incremental, consistent decisions. If you're the kind of person who can intuitively translate a distant large goal into a sequence of immediate, small actions, I am jealous of you.

For the rest of us, there is Beeminder.

I used to scoff at Beeminder when I would see it promoted in the right sidebar of Slate Star Codex: set up a fine to keep myself motivated? How does that make sense?

Compulsion makes me kick against the traces--even if is a compulsion I decided on.

But, as it turns out, the fine is by far the least important feature of Beeminder, at least to me, so I've learned not to lead with it when describing it to others--my friends have much the same response to it that I did.

Beeminder lets you think through a goal, break it down into small, doable segments, and then let you track those segments, and how well you are doing on your path to that long-term goal. It shows you the path graphically through time, warns you when your rate is low, and then, if you fall below the goal path, called "derailing", fines you (and the fine doubles with every subsequent derailing, up to a maximum you can set).

But to me, it is more a game, kind of  like a really slow game of Tetris. You know the piece is falling. But the game is only a small part of your life, and it's easy to neglect while you are focused on other things. Beeminder turns long-term goals into a game that you can play and track.

I started beause my friend Jeff Carver always tells me to turn my books into e-books, as he has done so successfully with his own. I had all my old books scanned, but there were lots of errors, which required proofreading, which....I didn't do. In any given week, there was just too many other things to do. Even though the goal was important, I didn't do it.

So that was the first goal I Beeminded. I assigned myself a number of times a week I would do a 25-minute session of proofreading (can you tell I use the Pomodoro Technique? I'll cover how that works for me in another post). Worked like a charm. I can look at my phone, see how many days I have before I drop below the line, and find time to do a session. I've done one book and am into the next.

Since that, I've added a lot of goals, some near-term, some bigger. I want to play the piano more, read and keep up my Russian more, improve my marketing analytics abilities, so all of those have tasks per week. It also makes sure I call my mother frequently (I'm a bad son, but a better one with Beeminder), and a few more private goals as well. A lot of people use it for losing weight, but I don't.

And, yes, my blog writing Beeminder indicates that I only have one day until I derail, why do you ask?

It's free for two goals, as long as you never go below the line. But I wanted more, so I paid them a yearly amount.

Beeminder essentially makes me more like the automatically productive person I mentioned in the first paragraph, and less the neurotic procrastinator I actually am. I wish it had been around earlier in my personal history.

Do you have some goal that you never seem to find the time to move toward? Give Beeminder a try. You might be surprised at how much progress you can make, after years of stasis and avoidance.

Earlier anti-akrasia posts

I: minimizing distraction

II: to-do lists and next actions

T. S. Eliot explains fake news

"Fake news" is all the rage. This isn't about the various news outlets getting gamed about the motivations for the Iraq War, or any of the other way reporters get misled. This really does seem a type of precisely machine product intended for a specific use.

But what is that use? One of my favorite podcasts, Planet Money, recently had a segment about fake news. They tracked down and interviewed a guy who seems to make his living generating fake news, employing a number of freelancers. He invents plausible sources, and makes stories up out of whole cloth.

But the stories clearly fit a narrative, and create a vision of the world. Some people are absolutely convinced these are true, but "true" in what sense? I've always been puzzled by this need to believe the patently untrue to justify why you don't like something. Why can't you just dislike it on the merits?

There were plenty of reasons to find fault with Obamacare, for example, but "death panels" wasn't one of them. There are perfectly sensible reasons to oppose Obama's programs in general, but that he is a Kenyan Muslim is not one of them either.

People are feeling an odd disjuncture between their reasons and their emotions. They hate Hillary Clinton. Hate, hate, HATE her. Again, there were fine reasons to oppose her and her policies. But that she commits murder and participates in a pedophile ring operating out of a pizza parlor are not among them.

Clinton, now history, is a normal politician. She has her unpleasant personality traits, cuts corners, dislikes it when people try to ask her questions, likes getting paid a lot to deliver anodyne speeches, scratches backs and has her scratched in turn, whatever. There is really nothing much unusual about her as a politician, except that she is a woman (and that's not relevant to the point I am making here).

So people need to explain to themselves why they hate her so much. Her position on daycare? Her policy toward Brazil? Her tax policy? No one even knows what any of those are.

In his essay Hamlet and His Problems, T. S. Eliot popularized the concept of the "objective correlative", much loved by writing teachers. An objective correlative is something that is physically present in the story, but represents certain otherwise inexpressible ideas or emotions that otherwise could not manifest themselves.

As Eliot said

 The only way of expressing emotion in the form of art is by finding an “objective correlative”; in other words, a set of objects, a situation, a chain of events which shall be the formula of that particular emotion...Hamlet (the man) is dominated by an emotion which is inexpressible, because it is in excess of the facts as they appear.

These fake stories of murder, sexual deviancy, assumed identities, and dark conspiracies that are nevertheless openly signaled as a form of arrogant contempt, these stories are the objective correlative of these people's hatred. Their emotions are expressed through these stories, through reading them, liking them, linking to them, commenting on them.

Don't ask me why they hate Clinton this way in the first place, rather than just resolutely opposing her and her policies. I don't follow sports team, don't go to church, don't join fan clubs. I'm not a team player--I lack the joy of partisanship. There's a lot I don't really get about my fellow humans. But these people's emotions are in excess of the facts as they appear, and it makes them uncomfortable.

So a market has developed, to provide them with the objective correlatives that make the invisible visible, and the senseless make sense--it provides the chain of events that is the formula of their emotion.

Now, I have no idea of what to do about this politically or practically. But I think it's worth trying to understand what problem this type of "news" is solving (we're going to have to travel through this upcoming era armored in ironic quotes).

One possible conclusion is that fake news does not create people who hate Clinton, or Obama, or whoever is going to come next, but just provides them with fact-free stories to support what they already feel, but I suspect that is too optimistic.

 

 

In praise of slow media

After the election, I decided to take some time off from up-to-the-minute news. I paused my New York Times delivery (yes, sonny, I do still read ink on paper, want to make something of it?), cut down on blog reading, and stuck to the Economist, The New York Review of Books, and a few other journals. And books. Remember those?

And, after a few weeks, there are a couple of weekly podcasts I have resumed.

So what's been going on? I know there have been tweets. One of the TVs by the squat racks at the gym is tuned to CNN when I go. The high-cheekboned Brooke Baldwin is always looking startled or appalled by something, but the sound is off, so I am never quite sure what it is. But it seems to often involve a tweet by the President Elect.

(The other TV, by the benches and dumbbell racks, is tuned to one of those sports shows where everyone does stylized commentary kabuki about what some sportsball player has just done or might soon do or should do and why everyone else on the show is utterly wrong about what this person did or might do or should do--they all seem to have an extraordinarily good time doing this, but I can't hear them either).

If someone had had the sense to choose the term burp rather than tweet, our lives would be much the better.

My vacation from the Gray Lady will end soon. I've finished Francis Fukuyama's The Origins of Political Order, and will take a break before attacking the second volume, about political order since the French Revolution. One big topic is the inevitable decay of political institutions, and how they often continue long after circumstances  have changed and they are no longer useful, but are propped up from the groups that continue to benefit from them. Until there is a crisis and they fall over like a stage set.

Somber thoughts. But that is my topic for this winter: functional institutions, the nature of political legitimacy, and how we, as feeble individuals, should act in the long term to make this world a better rather than a worse place.

 

My anti-akrasia tools II: to-do lists and next actions

Task management: Toodledo

There are various arguments against the whole concept of a "to do" list, and some are pretty persuasive. Still, if I don't have tasks written down and in a place I can find easily, I will forget them. For this, I use Toodledo.

There are a variety of to do list apps, of course. I don't classify things much, I don't have levels of criticality, and I like things simple. I like opening up my phone and seeing what things I decided (at some point) needed doing. By me.

I am a big fan of David Allen's Getting Things Done, like a lot of people. I'm not going to go into it, but I like it because it is simple, doesn't require a lot of upfront classification, and really does work, if you do it (the weekly review is my big weakness, again, like a lot of people). Toodledo allows me to label things as Next Action, and that's pretty much all I need.

Not that I don't have a lot of overdue tasks. But I can look and see what I haven't done. As long as I haven't gone crazy and added a huge number of overambitious projects (which I, like all those other people, have done), it is clear, workable, and always with me.

Part I: anti-distraction tools

My anti-akrasia tools I: minimizing distraction

My name is Alex, and I am a procrastinator. I avoid emotionally charged, tiresome, or long-term tasks, and have bad emotional relationships with them. When I am avoiding an important task, I am easily distracted.

"Akrasia" is the term us fancy-ass people use for when we deliberately and knowingly act against our own best judgment. It's from ancient Greek, and so gives our blog-post reading a retrospective air of classical severity.

I'm not alone in being a procrastinator, certainly, but I do have certain behaviors that have been a burden on me since at least junior high school.

As our modern interactive environment has provided more, easier, and more satisfying distractions, it has also provided tools for structuring our mental processing so that we can more successfully achieve our goals.

Note: there are a variety of procrastinations, and some of these may work better for you than others. I will list the ones I currently use, why I use them, and what effects I think they have.

Distraction elimination: Cold Turkey, Leechblock, StayFocusd

I work on a computer that is connected to the internet. To prevent myself from randomly surfing, which I am more likely to do when I'm tired or the task is challenging, I use Cold Turkey. I know which sites I am most likely to try to distract myself with. Cold Turkey lets you make a "block list" of those. When I want a block of working time, I turn on the block, and can no longer get access to any of those sites, on any browser.

I have the paid version, so I also have a more severe list, which blocks every site, with a few whitelisted exceptions (mostly things related to my freelance business, so I can still work with leads, schedules, or invoices). It also lets me block specific applications. There are a few games on my computer that are good distractions, so I can lock myself out of them for a specified period.

Sometimes I forget I've blocked sites and try to goof off using one. Cold Turkey will give you an image of a nebula and an inspirational quote. "Either you run the day or the day runs you" is the one that just came up, because I have it on right now, to get this post done.

 I've also used Leechblock, which is Firefox-specific, and StayFocusd, for Chrome. Leechblock will let you set how many minutes per hour (or whatever interval you specify) you can goof off, which can be a bit less harsh. StayFocusd also lets you browse for some limited time, but has the additional feature that sites you get to by clicking on a link in a block list site will count against your time--it warns you about this. So, if you've said you'll only be on Facebook five minutes an hour, and you click on one of those news stories, that story will still count against your time.

I used to rely entirely on Leechblock, but am currently finding Cold Turkey both more flexible and more severe. It has various more severe options, like locking you out of your computer completely for some specific period of time, that I don't use.

And that's where you need to make your choices. I find that once I put a blocker in place, I am not tempted to circumvent it. My urge to goof off is everpresent, but a bit of resistance reminds me of what I am supposed to be accomplishing, and I usually accept it. Your urge to distract may well be stronger.

Some people wanting to lose weight can leave a box of cookies on the counter and not be tempted to eat them until after dinner. Some might need to hide the box in a drawer, but won't open the drawer. Some need to put it in a container that takes some time to open--I've seen food safes with timers. And some may need to ban cookies from their house for the duration of their diet because they'll find themselves breaking into the safe with a hacksaw (in which case a diet is probably not the best long-term solution to a weight concern, but that's a different issue).

So the severity of a site and application blocker will have to match your own self-control profile. I use mine daily, and it makes a difference to my productivity. Actually, it just dinged to tell me I can goof off online again, so I'm done with this post.

 

Hiding out, educating myself about the (possible) apocalypse

As I mentioned in my last post, I am busy trying to learn about political theory, something that has not exercised my mind much previously. But I suddenly see all that is solid melting into air (and, yes, I am quoting the Communist Manifesto, why do you ask?) and realize that my default assumption that the system that made us all rich, secure, and long-lived will continue for the forseeable future, is completely unwarranted.

I've not become a prepper, or anything like that. In fact, I suspect that preppers are part of the group seeking to throw their shoes into the machinery, because what's the point of prepping if everyone else is living a happy, secure life?

But part of my spiritual preparation is a bit of a media diet. I got too interested in the minutiae of polls, who said what ridiculous thing, what possible consequences there could be to that thing that might happen if something else happened first...it's ridiculous. The ratio of information to packing peanuts has gotten too small for me to even bother opening the box. For the next while, I'm sticking to The Economist, and some historical grounding from whatever thoughtful observers I can find.

 

Getting into political theory

I've never been taken any classes in political theory. Or political practice, for that matter. How polities are best structured, what institutions help make you rich, what other ones lead to stagnation or eternal conflict, how even originally good institutions decay over time, what makes people accept a government as legitimate, how people can take the stability of their society for granted until it all dissoves around them....

Well, for some reason, I am thinking about those things now. My current reading is Francis Fukuyama's The Origins of Political Order, the first of two volumes, this one covering the history of state building up to the French Revolution.

Thick, dense, and tremendous fun, so far. He spends a great deal of time on China, and a lot on India as well, and lets the Roman Empire kind of take care of itself.

One big theme is the negative effects what he calls patrimonialism has on state building and strength. Loyalty to your relatives is natural. Successful states are, by that token, deeply unnatural. They break the link between family and political authority. He posits that feudalism in the West, essentially a contractual relationship, formed a stable base on which more complex polities could be built. There is certainly a lot of the personal in feudalism, as there is in any relationship between people. But it started the West down a road where the important thing was office and not person.

I don't want to oversimplify. Fukuyama gives a good deal of attention to what characterized each type of government, how it grew out of its circumstances and history, what expectations people had of the systems under which they lived, and how, inevitably, changing expectations weren't met by the existing system.

How the Mamelukes and Ottomans built successful systems based on giving political power to high-status slaves (to eliminate the risk of patrimonialism), only to have these systems eventually fracture as these successful slaves found ways to pass their wealth and power on to their descendants, may seem to have little to do with our current troubles, but seeing how many different ways there are to deal with a recurrent problem is definitely enlightening. It's easy to be distracted by the immediate details. What are people really after? How different is that, really, from one age to another? What mechanisms slow people down from destroying the system that benefits them so much? I won't say prevents--nothing has ever prevented societal collapse.

I'm not done yet, and need to think it through once I am, but there is a lot to like about this book.

One unsurprising election result: Washington rejects carbon tax

A couple of weeks ago I wrote about Washington state's proposed carbon tax. Short summary: an attempt at trying a revenue-neutral carbon tax was strenuously opposed by most environmental groups because it didn't pay enough attention to social justice issues.

This was in addition to the Koch Brothers and various energy-intensive industries. The initiative went down to defeat, with only 42 percent voting in support.

Needless to say, I am disappointed. The measure seemed reasonable, well-thought-out, and moderate, the first step on a road to reducing carbon emissions without having some government agency or pressure group take the money to give to favored causes, rather than allowing individuals and corporations make their own most efficient choices.

If these groups genuinely believe that climate change is major threat, they are essentially using this threat as leverage on social justice issues. They are making absolutely certain that they get no cooperation from anyone on the right, or in business, or elsewhere, who does not share their position on those issues.

Any moderate or classical liberal who is concerned with climate change, or with a host of other issues having to do with economic growth, free speech, and freedom of conscience and religion, will have to reasses their position in a Democratic Party that has lost the ability to govern, either locally or nationally, aside from a few enclaves like the one I happen to live in.

Members of the Washington Chapter of the Sierra Club resigned over this issue. Audubon supported 732. So it's not as if all liberals have allowed themselves to be so trapped by social justice issues that they can't have an open discussion about anything.

And to be clear: I believe that social justice issues are important. It's just that while they used to be an important thing for everyone to work on, they are now a weapon, and an excuse, and a litmus test, turning the entire Left into a weird kind of self-hostage situation. Unless someone finds a way to reopen discussion, this will tear the Left apart over the next couple of years.

And climate change? It sems that it's important if it's a club to beat the Right with, but really not that important if there is a party line to toe.  This is all very disheartening.

 

Uncle Vanya and our current moment

Last night I went to a reading group I like, where we discussed Anton Chekhov's play Uncle Vanya, first put on stage in 1899. After rereading it, I rewatched the great Vanya on 42nd Street, with Wallace Shawn and Julianne Moore (the movie has a wonderfully sly beginning, sliding us into the play without our quite realizing it).

It's a play about hopelessness, about an unproductive world in which changing your situation seems completely impossible--and also about the self-defeating personality those circumstances seem to engender. Astrov the idealistic doctor is dissolving himself slowly in alcohol and finds it impossible to make a real human connection. Vanya labors pointlessly for someone he once respected, but his labor is really to keep himself from taking any chances. Vanya's mother spends her time making notes on political pamphlets, as close to an obsessive commenter on blogs as the nineteenth century could get.

A modern restaging set in one of America's hollowing out areas would work perfectly. The frustrations, angers, and acceptance of a humble and undeserved fate would require little translation. Dr. Astrov's big interest is environmental destruction, the effects that destruction has on the human soul, which would also be spot on.

On being involuntarily messy

All my usual channels are singing the praises of Tim Harford's new book, Messy: The Power of Disorder to Transform Our Lives , including the usually reliable Tyler Cowen, at Marginal Revolution, who said "it is Tim’s best and deepest book".

Maybe. Most of the reviews spend a lot of time telling me that messy people are more creative than neat people, and that, in fact, being neat is a gigantic waste of time. They may just be seizing something between hard covers that validates their own impulses (there are only two kinds of popular nonfiction books: "everything you know is wrong" and "what you've always believed is absolutely the only sensible thing to believe": this is the second kind). Maybe the book is more subtle than that.

All I can say is, what I've read about it has nothing to do with my life. I am a naturally messy person. Does that mean I'm creative?

No. It means I'm a slob. Or I was. I had huge piles of paper on my desk. My bedroom floor was invisible under books, clothes, record jackets, plates, whatever. I could never find anything. I lost or forgot important things. I bought replacements for things I already had. My library books were always overdue. Because the physical mess reflected my internal mess: I was a disorganized procrastinator. I didn't like it. It didn't make me happy. And it didn't in any way help me to be creative.

Gradually, over some tough years, I became neater. As anyone who knows me can tell you, that doesn't mean I'm some kind of obsessive neatnik. But I don't have huge piles of paper, my inbox doesn't have many emails in it, various documents are in folders that I can find and retrieve. I no longer use checks as bookmarks (and thus lose them), and I make my bed every morning.

I like it. I like it a lot. My organization, hard won though it is, is what keeps me productive, and, yes, creative. It has made me a calmer and less anxious person.

As I said, maybe the Harford book is more subtle than the reviews indicate. But it more sounds like one of those Gladwell-ish "everything is divided into two categories, and the category everyone has always thought is the desirable one is actually the one that is awful, and the one you should abhor" magazine articles blown up to book length. To his credit, while Malcolm Gladwell has committed a couple of books, his best work (and, don't get me wrong, he is genuinely entertaining, and often enlightening) is at magazine article length. Almost anything, including the Thirty Years War, can be dealt with most effectively at shorter length.

Going on too long is its own sort of mess. So I will stop right here.

Washington state's Initiative 732: global warming mitigation and social justice come into conflict

Here’s a question for anyone who skews left in the early 21st century: if you could moderate or eliminate global warming without paying the slightest attention to “social justice” issues, would you do it?

From the looks of the passionate responses to Washington state's Initiative 732, on the ballot in a week, for many on the left, that answer would be a resounding NO.

But not all leftists agree, leading to a lot of interesting discussion. No matter what happens on Election Day, I think this split between left pragmatists and social justice activists will become more visible. It’s really worth debating.

I-732

I-732 is a ballot initiative in Washington that would impose a carbon tax on fossil fuels, and then return that money against sales tax, corporate taxes, and tax credits to ensure that poor people who would be disproportionately affected by a tax that increases their heating and transportation costs get their money back.

It’s clear, simple, and would allow for a straightforward proof of concept (a similar law has been in effect in British Columbia for a few years): does it lower carbon emissions efficiently without causing harm?

What’s not to like, then?

And a pony

The Sightline Institute recently wrote several articles covering the issues involved in the I-732 debate. In the initial article, Weighing CarbonWA’s Tax Swap Ballot Initiative, they encapsulated the issue for all of us:

At Sightline we believe that climate policy must be effective and fair, not only cutting climate-warming pollution and putting us on track toward clean air and clean energy, but also building a more just and equitable society.

In other words, a climate policy agenda is held hostage to a completely separate agenda. I happen to think that both agendas are important. I just don’t think they should be linked together.  You should be able to do something about global warming without being responsible for other societal issues, unless your global warming solution negatively affects someone specific, in which case you should ameliorate that disparate impact.

That said, I think the Sightline series is thoughtful and thorough, and they were totally upfront about their position and goals.  They are to be commended—even though I think they’re wrong in linking these two important issues.

The problems with telling the truth

Yoram Bauman, the creator of 732, was quoted by Greg Mankiw in the NY Times as saying,

I am increasingly convinced that the path to climate action is through the Republican Party. Yes, there are challenges on the right -- skepticism about climate science and about tax reform -- but those are surmountable with time and effort. The same cannot be said of the challenges on the left: an unyielding desire to tie everything to bigger government, and a willingness to use race and class as political weapons in order to pursue that desire.

Needless to say, this raised a firestorm—mostly from people desperate to prove him right.

But one sure way to minimize support from the conservative side of the aisle for a climate change initiative is to tie it explicitly to a social justice agenda. From the point of view of leftist activists, is that a bug, or a feature?

A real plan versus vague hopes

The main issue with those who oppose 732 is that they have no concrete plan of their own. They just don’t like this one, which is too simple, too self-organizing, and maybe too nerdy for their taste.  

From the Sierra Club’s explanation of why they can’t support I-732:

Communities of color and low-income people are almost always the ones most impacted by pollution and climate change, and as a result they need to be at the front and center of discussions for how to address the problem and mitigate the impacts of both climate change and environmental policy. That wasn't the approach taken by I-732. As a result, the initiative fails to affirmatively address any of the stated needs of those communities: more investment in green jobs, energy efficiency, transit, housing, and renewable energy infrastructure.

I think that is a good statement of the opposing argument, and to me reveals how intellectually weak it is.  It has two parts, worth looking at separately: 1) poor communities will be more affected by climate change than others, and 2) someone needs to provide specific green benefits to specific poor people for a climate change proposal to be acceptable.

Poor communities and pollution

Poor and minority communities do often live in areas with more pollutants of various sorts. Rents in those areas tend to be lower because they are less pleasant places to live. And such communities tend to have less political power when it comes to placing new environmental risks.

But the reasoning seems to be: pollution causes global warming, poor communities have more pollution; therefore poor communities will suffer more from global warming. Maybe, though it does not follow from the previous facts.  Global warming is universal and widespread, not focused in certain locations. If they really will be more affected, I wouldn't mind a more explicit statement of why.

Allowing individuals to decide what a “benefit” is

A well-designed revenue-neutral carbon tax would encourage people to make choices that minimize their own carbon use. If those choices involve the creation of “green jobs” (whatever those might be), great. The other things, energy efficiency, transit, etc., will emerge from the choices people make, based on what they conclude is best for them.

The main thing is that some people want to be able to control that potential tax revenue and disburse it in a way that increases their political power.  The initiative is written in such a way that this targeting is impossible. This is its political weakness: it does not pay off anyone specific, while being a visible new tax. Diffuse benefits and specific costs always cause political trouble.

I happen to think that poor communities would benefit from a well-designed carbon tax, along with everyone else.

Among arguments from 732 opponents, I particularly liked this one from Fuse, where, after a passionate discussion of how communities of color have been under-represented in environmental discussions (which is completely true) the authors have to glumly admit that they, too, are white, and presumably middle class.  I do appreciate their honesty.

To its credit, Audubon Washington has come out in favor of I-732.

Massachusetts has no really interesting initiatives this year (except maybe for legalizing marijuana), so I’m sad I can’t be in Washington to pull the lever for this one.

Here’s a question for anyone who skews left in the early 21st century: if you could moderate or eliminate global warming without paying the slightest attention to “social justice” issues, would you do it?

From the looks of the passionate responses to Washington’s Initiative 732, on the ballot in a week, for many on the left, that answer would be a resounding NO.

But not all leftists agree, and, no matter what happens on Election Day, I think this split between left pragmatists and social justice activists will become more visible. It’s really worth debating.

I-732

I-732 is a ballot initiative in Washington that would impose a carbon tax on fossil fuels, and then return that money against sales tax, corporate taxes, and tax credits to ensure that poor people who would be disproportionately affected by a tax that increases their heating and transportation costs get their money back.

It’s clear, simple, and would allow for a straightforward proof of concept (a similar law has been in effect in British Columbia for a few years): does it lower carbon emissions efficiently without causing harm?

What’s not to like, then?

And a pony

The Sightline Institute recently wrote several articles covering the issues involved in the I-732 debate. In the initial article, Weighing CarbonWA’s Tax Swap Ballot Initiative, they encapsulated the issue for all of us:

“At Sightline we believe that climate policy must be effective and fair, not only cutting climate-warming pollution and putting us on track toward clean air and clean energy, but also building a more just and equitable society.”

In other words, a climate policy agenda is held hostage to a completely separate agenda. I happen to think that both agendas are important. I just don’t think they should be linked together.  You should be able to do something about global warming without being responsible for other societal issues, unless your global warming solution negatively affects someone specific.

That said, I think the Sightline series is thoughtful and thorough, and they were totally upfront about their position and goals.  And they didn’t get all self-important, a stylistic deformation of professional leftists. Believe me, I live in Cambridge, I’ve been a liberal all my life, I know these people.  Sightline is to be commended—even though I think they’re wrong in linking these issues.

The problems with telling the truth

Yoram Bauman, the creator of 732, was quoted by Greg Mankiw in the NY Times as saying,

"I am increasingly convinced that the path to climate action is through the Republican Party. Yes, there are challenges on the right -- skepticism about climate science and about tax reform -- but those are surmountable with time and effort. The same cannot be said of the challenges on the left: an unyielding desire to tie everything to bigger government, and a willingness to use race and class as political weapons in order to pursue that desire."

Needless to say, this has raised a firestorm—from people desperate to prove him right.

One sure way to minimize support from the conservative side of the aisle for a climate change initiative is to tie it explicitly to a social justice agenda. From the point of view of leftist activists, is that a bug, or a feature?

A real plan versus vague hopes

The main issue with those who oppose 732 is that they have no concrete plan of their own. They just don’t like this one, which is too simple, too self-organizing, and maybe too nerdy for their taste.  

From the Sierra Club’s explanation of why they can’t support I-732:

“Communities of color and low-income people are almost always the ones most impacted by pollution and climate change, and as a result they need to be at the front and center of discussions for how to address the problem and mitigate the impacts of both climate change and environmental policy. That wasn't the approach taken by I-732. As a result, the initiative fails to affirmatively address any of the stated needs of those communities: more investment in green jobs, energy efficiency, transit, housing, and renewable energy infrastructure.”

I think that is a good statement of the opposing argument, and to me reveals how intellectually weak it is.  It has two parts, worth looking at separately: 1) poor communities will be more affected by climate change than others, and 2) someone needs to provide specific green benefits to specific people.

Poor communities and pollution

Poor and minority communities do often live in areas with more pollutants of various sorts. Rents in those areas tend to be lower because they are less pleasant places to live. And such communities tend to have less political power when it comes to placing new environmental risks.

But the reasoning seems to be: pollution causes global warming, poor communities have more pollution; therefore poor communities will suffer more from global warming. Maybe, though it does not follow from the previous facts.  Global warming is universal and widespread, not focused in certain locations.

Allowing individuals to decide what a “benefit” is

A well-designed revenue-neutral carbon tax would encourage people to make choices that minimize their own carbon use. If those choices involve the creation of “green jobs” (whatever those might be), great. The other things, energy efficiency, transit, etc., will emerge from the choices people make, based on what they conclude is best for them.

The main thing is the some people want to be able to control that potential tax revenue and disburse it in a way that increases their political power.  The initiative is written in such a way that this targeting is impossible. This is its political weakness: it does not pay off anyone specific, while being a visible new tax. Diffuse benefits and specific costs always cause political trouble.

I happen to think that poor communities would benefit from a well-designed carbon tax, along with everyone else.

Among arguments from opponents, I particularly liked this one from Fuse, where, after a passionate discussion of who communities of color have been under-represented in environmental discussions (which is completely true—I’m not arguing with any of those points) the authors have to glumly admit that they, too, are white, and presumably middle class.  I do appreciate their honesty.

To its credit, Audubon Washington has come out in favor of I-732.

Massachusetts has no really interesting initiatives this year (except maybe for the marijuana one), so I’m sad I can’t be in Washington to pull the lever for this one.

Greetings from 1933

In my reading on the 1933 Union Station Massacre in Kansas City, I also learned some things about the country at that time.

First, it was a desperately corrupt place. Entire cities were run by the mob, or other criminal enterprises, and everywhere else seemed strongly affected by organized crime of various kinds.  We tend to underestimate the parasitic load of corruption through most of the twentieth centurey, from concrete contracts to uneven enforcement of the law, a load that, despite a lot of rhetoric, is way lower now than it used to be.

For example, the two federal agents who grabbed Frank Nash in Hot Springs faced a gantlet of corrupt police forces on their way out of town. All of their movements were known, though they threw off pursuit by telling one bunch of corrupt cops they were heading to Joplin, when they actually went to Fort Smith, to catch the train to KC. Of course, they didn't do themselves any favors by then answering the questions of a curious reporter, revealing who they were and where they were going. They proved that not all publicity is good publicity by walking into the ambush when they got there the next morning.

KC, or course, was run by the Prendergast machine. The local mob boss, Johnny Lazia, held court at the Fred Harvey restaurant at the train station. Though the Fred Harvey company (famous for its Harvey Girls) is long gone, the restaurant at Union Station is still a going concern, though I suspect it doesn't resemble Lazia's late-night hangout much, and I don't know who actually runs it. I had lunch there with some old friends from college.

Lazia supposedly gave sanction to the Massacre, and helped clean up afterward. Like many of these guys, he was killed by his fellows, rather than by the cops or the feds, the next year.

Another thing was how dangerous driving was. Now, most of the driving in the various books I read is being done by desperate and low-attention-span thrill killers and bank robbers. Still, they keep spinning out, going off the road, crashing into things, and ending up in ditches. Just as one example among many, Clyde Barrow missed a sign warning of a missing bridge and drove off into a dry river bed--on June 10, a week before the Massacre, to show how everything was happening at once. Bonnie's leg was severely burned by spilled battery acid, and she was never really able to walk again. She was carried, or hopped around on one leg.

Roads were poorly marked, curves sharp, lights rare, and car tires exploded or shredded unexpectedly. No seat belts. And, yeah, people were insane drivers. As with homicides, the 1930s were a peak in automobile vehicle fatalities. The rate for most of that decade was near three per thousand population. The current rate is a third that, and there are vastly more cars per population than there were then. The death rate per million vehicle miles was around 15 in the 1930s. Now it is one.

And people, lacking other distractions, really got into things. If a bank robbery got at all delayed, the street outside would fill with curious onlookers. Posses were a real thing, and bandits were pursued by huge numbers of armed citizens, as the Clyde gang was in Dexter, Iowa, where they had camped out to recuperate. And as I mentioned before, people weren't shy about taking souvenirs, whether it was blood, bullets, or clothing.

It was a wild time, and weirder than we usually think.